adat

also ...
a prominent wave in early 2008, with a dragonfly doji in April

then this top was tested, but prices then went lower.

January 2009, invert hammer doji buy signal. the subsequent rally went right by the March 2008 top.

There followed in August 2009 a quick dip back to the base pattern - the magic trade, if you had an order in. The sell signal at that point was - this is according to the system, although it's one of the harder parts of it to interpret - 2.5.

The August dip is now a clear heel, echoed by a heel in October 2010, high dragonfly candle, and then a small dragonfly toe in January '011, buy signal, order filled, followed by a nice sharp rally mostly retracing the 2009 top. Again, not the easiest prediction, the 2011 top, but after the big green candle (April '11) a red dragonfly, whose real body indeed provided the limit price for selling ... for a double.

Sure, it was a heel later in 2011, doubling up, and a sturdy invert hammer in later 2012, if the earlier 2012 dragonfly didn't tempt us first, and then all that failed ...

Into a heel and dragonfly toe in early 2013, and then a two step rally. Now we have a second two step rally ... developing.

Although the second time is a charm, it also mirrors the first time, which supports my hypothesis of a sell at .7.

Analysis complete.

Earlier ADAT posts ...

abac

second chart reviewed with the new criteria in mind and second seeming critical stage buy.



This was supposed to be an investigation of historical events but it seems to be turning into an inquiry into the present. But now we can look at at an historical bottom. Buy signals in early 2012, and in the middle of 2012, and then continuously from late 2012 into mid 2013. Oh, and note that the rally after mid 2013 wasn't that significant although it did triple and went straight to almost exactly the 2012 top. What would we have been waiting for, in 2012? Not months of buy signals, right? The breakout in August was system compliant lower low, higher high. It's highly likely there was a buy signal in the daily chart after that. Seriously? Are we waiting for that clear a breakout. Again I find myself thinking probably not, not yet, but we do have our small target trade on record, now.

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aau

noteWe have, in 2008, an uninterrupted sequence of lower highs and lows - a cascade. It is followed by ... 18 months of gradual appreciation (2x), then five months of rapid appreciation (5x). CBs in 2009/second half and early 2010, twice. Other CBs are in 2014 and the last two bars of the chart. Oh, and first half 2015. What is coming next? Wedge suggests another rally to wedge high, but we don't know a lot about the pattern. Tops at $3 suggest another top there, but we don't know how significant it will be. Similarly tops at $2. The events of 2009 - mid2010 could be called "distinctive".

noteIf the events of 2009/2010 are distinctive, so are the events of August-October, here. There's evidence that the difference in scale is inconsequential ... the two similar forms will produce the same result, that is, another rally to 5.

noteThe system predicts, based on this pattern, a top, maybe at 2, with a retracement, maybe to 1 (should you sell at 2?), then a top at 3 with a retracement to maybe (extra maybe) 1? (should you sell at 3?) Then a top at 5, where you should sell. This should all happen quite fast ... although ... that top at 2 could be significant. But, due to the wedge quality of 2010 to 2015, the system does not predict  a gradual advance like 2009-10. There is a now pointy wedge from 2013 to the present, a now pointy wedge from 2012 to the present, and a now pointy wedge from 2010 to the present. THIS IS WHAT THE SYSTEM PREDICTS. WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS RELIABLE OR NOT IS UNKNOWN. THE EVIDENCE IS SO FAR ON BALANCE NEGATIVE THOUGH WITH CERTAIN DISTINCTLY POSITIVE RESULTS. WE HAVE MADE CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS RECENTLY WHICH, IN LIMITED TESTING, TEST OUT WELL, BUT THE RESULT IN THE PRESENT INSTANCE REMAINS EFFECTIVELY UNKNOW.

SOMETHING IS FISHY. The tops at 2 take on increasing significance as we re-run certain algorithms.

Will there be buy signals as prices drop from 2 towards 1? If we ignore initial signals, will prices drop to .5 again, or even below? Will there be buy signals in the daily chart (or even the monthly) after prices drop (from 2 back and) below .5? The system suggests these events are, in fact, probable.

Analysis complete.





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aqxp

Canyon Bottom Pattern. There's a cliff on the left, then a flat bottom. I'm interested in them because they do things like this.

I expect prices to continue upwards. Details.

Still, I say the main move is over, and the real money to be made is buying at the bottom. (Tim Sykes makes his money buying now, selling tomorrow, but I don't know how to do that.)

It's easy to find Canyon Bottom examples. My feeling is they do often jump up, like this, although, and this is important, they don't usually do it so quickly - many Canyon Bottoms last for months before they jump up - or, maybe, so dramatically.

It's easy to find examples, but making these posts isn't so easy. I guess I'll see how it goes.

I found this by looking at Finviz, where this was the top gainer (right on the home page).

This means I can find Canyon Bottom setups by looking at the top losers on Finviz. If the chart shows a cliff, that sets up a Canyon Bottom, and if we follow the stock, we can see whether a Canyon Bottom develops.