Sunday, September 27, 2015

methodological update

i've been looking at monthly charts a lot the last few days. i was trying to figure out whether a longer term approach might be the answer. after a while, though, i actually concluded that my best bet is daily charts, period. absolutely, you can find trades in monthly charts, and they will have very good projected returns, like 500%, or +5000%, but you will need to wait for months to realize those returns. thinking it over, i quickly realized that i want to realize my gains within weeks, not months. waves of one or two month's duration are detailed on daily charts, not on monthly charts. the monthly charts are quite useless for analyzing waves of such short duration. i've stopped even looking at them, and i've stopped including them in my writeups.

depending on the circumstances, it could make absolute sense for some readers to study monthly charts. if your time horizon is extended, you can pick stocks with buy signals in them at the end of the month, and analyze a trade on a ten year monthly chart exactly as you would a short term trade on a one year daily chart. this could work very well for someone investing a little bit of money every month, and it could work well for someone with a ton of cash. me, i'm quite pointedly looking for action, so the daily charts are where it's at.

by the way, i am not day trading, period. this is all end of day trading, with orders in the market overnight, and even good until cancelled.